Expected Value Calculator Betting

Expected Value Formula:

\[ EV = (Win\ Probability \times Payout) - (Loss\ Probability \times Stake) \]

Win Probability (decimal):

decimal

Payout:

currency

Loss Probability (decimal):

decimal

Stake:

currency

Expected Value (EV):

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1. What is Expected Value in Betting?

Expected Value (EV) is a statistical concept that represents the average outcome of a bet if it were placed multiple times. A positive EV indicates a profitable bet in the long run, while a negative EV suggests a losing proposition.

2. How Does the Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the Expected Value formula:

\[ EV = (Win\ Probability \times Payout) - (Loss\ Probability \times Stake) \]

Where:

\( Win\ Probability \) — Probability of winning the bet (0 to 1)
\( Payout \) — Amount won if bet is successful
\( Loss\ Probability \) — Probability of losing the bet (0 to 1)
\( Stake \) — Amount risked on the bet

Explanation: The equation calculates the average profit or loss per bet over the long term, helping bettors identify value opportunities.

3. Importance of Expected Value Calculation

Details: Calculating EV is crucial for professional bettors to identify profitable betting opportunities and maintain long-term profitability. It helps determine whether a bet offers positive value relative to the risk involved.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter win probability and loss probability as decimals between 0 and 1. Payout and stake should be entered in your preferred currency. Ensure probabilities sum to 1 for accurate results.

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What constitutes a good EV?
A: A positive EV indicates a theoretically profitable bet. The higher the positive value, the better the betting opportunity.

Q2: How accurate are EV calculations?
A: EV calculations are only as accurate as the probability estimates used. Professional bettors use statistical models to improve probability accuracy.

Q3: Should I only take positive EV bets?
A: While positive EV bets are ideal, bankroll management and bet sizing are equally important for long-term success.

Q4: How does EV relate to odds?
A: EV calculations incorporate both the probability of outcomes and the odds/payouts offered by bookmakers.

Q5: Can EV be used for all types of betting?
A: Yes, the EV concept applies to sports betting, casino games, poker, and any scenario involving probabilistic outcomes and financial stakes.